Cheesecake Factory anticipates $4B fiscal 2026 revenue midpoint while staying on track for up to 26 openings
Cheesecake Factory expects a revenue midpoint of $4 billion for the fiscal year 2026 and is maintaining plans to open up to 26 new locations.
The growth momentum driven by strong earnings and store expansion has been confirmed. In recent days, the stock price has sharply risen from the mid-$80s to the low $100s, showing a strong trend, and it is positive that both the recently announced EPS and revenue exceeded market expectations. However, there is a possibility of a correction until the resistance level is broken, so I will approach this with a strategy of gradual buying.
Assuming that the stock price breaks through the resistance level of 95 and continues its upward trend, we anticipate reaching a target price of $102.0. However, if the support level of 85 is breached, we will sell at a stop-loss price of $83.0.
The company recorded a return of 14.7%, significantly exceeding the forecasted return of 4.2%. The positive performance and the expansion of stores acted as stronger upward drivers than expected. While it is disappointing that we were unable to capture the stock price rising above our target sell price of $102.0, the overall direction was very accurate.
We have confirmed that a strategy of partial buying while checking for resistance line breakthroughs is effective in periods when the stock price surges immediately after positive news is announced. However, considering the additional upward momentum after reaching the target price, it will be necessary to practice adopting a slightly more flexible approach to profit-taking.