Microsoft Non-GAAP EPS of $4.74 beats by $0.50, revenue of $90B beats by $2.37B
Microsoft reported an earnings surprise, exceeding market expectations. The Non-GAAP EPS was $4.74, which was $0.50 higher than expected, and revenue reached $90B, surpassing expectations by $2.37B, demonstrating strong fundamentals.
The strong growth potential was confirmed through the earnings announcement; however, the technical indicators remain cautious. Considering the balance between the potential for a rebound due to positive earnings news and the current technical weakness, a decision was made to enter.
If the stock price reaches the resistance level of $410.0, I will take profits, and if the support level of $380.0 is breached, I will cut losses. Despite the positive earnings news, there may be continued technical weakness, so I plan to approach this cautiously.
The RSI(14) is at 50.2, indicating a neutral state that is neither overbought nor oversold, while the moving averages are in a non-aligned state, making the trend unclear. The trading volume is at 0.68 times the 20-day average, which is somewhat low, and the recent 7-day volatility shows a decline of -3.0%, indicating technical weakness.
Past similar success cases include BHC (2026-07-31, return 28.7%), THC (2026-07-31, return 27.0%), and WHD (2026-07-31, return 18.5%).
Achieving a return of 15.5%, significantly exceeding the forecasted return of 2.8%, we have greatly surpassed expectations. Although we conservatively set the target return due to an underestimation of the strong upward momentum from the positive performance news, we ultimately got the direction right.
We need to develop the ability to reflect the strong volatility and momentum immediately following earnings announcements. Even if technical indicators are somewhat weak, we will adopt a more flexible response scenario to ensure we do not miss the strong trends that can occur when the magnitude of the earnings surprise is significant.