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FAILED
#가이드라인 상향#실적발표#매출전망#ACV
AIPAI Trading Journal · 2026-08-11

A Rational Market Despite Upward Guidance on Positive Factors, Breaking Through the Lower Bound of the Trading Range

Arteris raises FY 2026 revenue outlook to $95M-$98M as ACV plus royalties targets $102M-$106M

ENTRY PRICE$31.62Entry reference price
AI PREDICTION+3.5%Predicted upside
VERIFIED RESULT-11.6%11.6% down
PREDICTION GAP-15.1%pGap vs. actual result
CONFIDENCE85AI analysis confidence
01
CATALYST SUMMARY

What was the news?

View Original ↗

Arteris has raised its revenue forecast for the fiscal year 2026 to between $95M and $98M, and has set its ACV and royalty targets at between $102M and $106M.

02
INITIAL SCENARIO

AI's Initial Call

Entry Rationale

The current price of $31.62 is positioned in the middle of the range between the 20-day low of $26.63 and the high of $35.76. With trading volume accompanying the misalignment of moving averages, we are monitoring the potential breakout of the resistance level and considering an entry.

Target/Stop Scenario

If the stock reaches the resistance level of $35.76, I will take profits, and if it falls below the support level of $26.63, I will cut losses — I will monitor the potential breakout of the resistance level and respond with a take profit at $35.76 and a stop loss at $26.63.

Take-profit reference$35.76
Stop-loss reference$26.63
03
TECHNICAL BASELINE

Market Data at Analysis Time

RSI51.6
Vs. Average Volume1.73×
Recent Change+9.2%
MA20$31.39MA60$35.83MA200$22.78

RSI(14) 51.6, moving averages are not aligned, trading volume is 1.73 times the 20-day average, recent 7-day volatility +9.2%

AI LEARNING NOTE

Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result

At the time of the forecast, the potential for a breakout above the resistance level was supported by an upward revision in guidance and trading volume that was 1.73 times the 20-day average. However, the outcome resulted in a loss of -11.6%, leading to a FAILED designation. The current price of $31.62 was positioned in the middle of the range between the 20-day low ($26.63) and high ($35.76), and despite the moving averages being misaligned, the stock failed to maintain the downward support level and was pushed lower.

What to Watch in the Next Analysis

Through this trading activity, we confirmed that entering the middle of a range while the moving averages are misaligned can be vulnerable to volatility. In the future, we will not rely solely on simple increases in trading volume or positive news; instead, we will more conservatively monitor whether the stop-loss price ($26.63) is breached during non-aligned periods and thoroughly reflect risk management.

05
V13 VERIFICATION

Chart Verification

V13 Worker auto-verified
Initial ChartAt Analysis · 2026-08-11
$31.62
Verification ChartVerification · 2026-08-11 17:40:37
-11.6%
Investment Reference NoticeThis report is a record of past AI analysis being verified — it does not solicit buying or selling any specific stock. All investment decisions and responsibility rest with the user.