Kinetik projects $1.04B-$1.1B in 2026 adjusted EBITDA amid $560M capex plan
Kinetik has projected an adjusted EBITDA of $1.04 billion to $1.1 billion for 2026 and announced a capital expenditure plan of $560 million.
The current price of $50.17 is positioned between the support level of $46.70 and the resistance level of $51.72, and the bullish MA arrangement along with increasing trading volume supports short-term upward pressure, prompting a buy consideration.
We will take profits if the upward pressure is maintained and the price reaches the resistance level of $51.72, and we will cut losses if it falls below the support level of $46.7.
RSI(14) 46.1, moving averages in a positive alignment, trading volume 1.12 times the 20-day average, recent 7-day volatility -1.0%
Past similar success cases include BLZE on 2026-08-04 (return 47.9%), HNST on 2026-08-06 (return 46.5%), and Gevo on 2026-07-23 (return 28.0%). All of these cases share the common factor of the 'EBITDA' keyword, which contributed to expectations of performance and guideline upgrades.
The initial forecasted return was set at a conservative target of 3.0%, but the actual result recorded a return of 11.5%, resulting in an OVERHIT designation. The assessment that an RSI of 46.1, a positive alignment of moving averages, and a trading volume of 1.12 times the 20-day average would support short-term upward pressure was accurate, and it was confirmed that the upward revision of the 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook and the $560 million capital investment plan acted as stronger-than-expected momentum in the market. However, the stock price, which had remained in a mid-position between support and resistance levels, subsequently surged strongly, significantly exceeding the target price. This indicates that when accompanied by strong upward guidance news, the potential for further increases can extend beyond short-term resistance levels.
Through this trading activity, we have confirmed that when positive news regarding performance and upward guidance, along with a bullish alignment of moving averages and an influx of trading volume, combine, a larger-than-expected increase can occur. In the future, when faced with similar favorable news and technical conditions, we will not be constrained by a conservative primary resistance target. Instead, we will reflect strategic flexibility in our approach by monitoring trading volume and trend strength in real-time and adjusting our profit-taking targets upward as needed.