Sandisk remains solid as Micron's Q4 results reveal tight NAND supply through 2028: Citi
Following Micron's Q4 earnings release, which confirmed that the NAND supply shortage will persist through 2028, Citi reported that SanDisk's business foundation remains solid.
The current price of $1,717.67 is positioned between the 20-day support line ($1,504.20) and resistance line ($1,909.48). Since trading volume is insufficient at 0.62 times the 20-day average, we should keep the possibility of a support test open rather than attempting to break through the resistance line, and consider entering conservatively.
Based on Micron's projected NAND supply shortage and solid fundamentals, we will take profit if it reaches the resistance level of $1,909.48 as of the 20th, and cut losses if it breaks below the support level of $1,504.20 amid insufficient trading volume (0.62x).
At the time of entry, the RSI(14) is 52.8, indicating a neutral zone, and the moving averages are in a bullish alignment (stacked in ascending order). Trading volume is at 0.62 times the 20-day average, and the volatility over the past 7 days recorded -1.5%.
I entered the trade trusting the tailwinds of the NAND supply shortage driven by Micron’s Q4 earnings, the bullish-aligned moving averages, and a neutral RSI of 52.8. However, the actual outcome resulted in a -24.4% "FAILED" rating, closing well below the stop-loss level ($1,504.20). Although the analysis suggested approaching the market with the possibility of a support-line test rather than a resistance breakout, based on the insufficient trading volume at the time—which was only 0.62 times the 20-day average—the actual downward pressure was much stronger than expected, failing to hold the support line and leading to a sharp decline.
This trade confirmed that if positive news fails to be accompanied by volume (at around 0.62x), downside volatility can expand significantly when the support level breaks. In future trades, for periods lacking volume support, we will move beyond a conservative approach to more strictly limit entry points and adjust our execution so that risk management is applied even more mechanically upon a support breach.