V12 SENTINEL ENGINE
All AI Trading Journal Entries
FAILED
#Silicon Motion#revenue growth#Edge AI#Ferri
SIMOAI Trading Journal · 2026-11-03

Hoped for earnings guidance, but cut losses after a sharp drop

Silicon Motion outlines at least 40% 2027 revenue growth as Q4 2026 revenue is guided to $588M-$616M

ENTRY PRICE$227.75Entry reference price
AI PREDICTION+4.5%Predicted upside
VERIFIED RESULT-17.5%17.5% down
PREDICTION GAP-22.0%pGap vs. actual result
CONFIDENCE82AI analysis confidence
01
CATALYST SUMMARY

What was the news?

View Original ↗

Silicon Motion issued guidance for Q4 2026 revenue of $588 million to $616 million and announced that 2027 revenue will grow by at least 40%.

02
INITIAL SCENARIO

AI's Initial Call

Entry Rationale

The current stock price of $187.9 is positioned above the $182.44 support level, prompting consideration for purchase in anticipation of a rebound near the support level. In addition, a target profit was set as there is room for upward movement up to the $294.98 resistance level.

Target/Stop Scenario

If the stock price reaches the resistance level of $294.98, take profit, and cut losses if it falls below the support level of $182.44. Since the current price is $187.9, prepare to realize profits if it reaches the resistance level and cut losses if it approaches the support level.

Take-profit reference$294.98
Stop-loss reference$182.44
03
TECHNICAL BASELINE

Market Data at Analysis Time

RSI34.9
Vs. Average Volume1.96×
Recent Change+1.1%
MA20$236.16MA60$250.1MA200$213.22

RSI(14) at 34.9 (oversold level), moving averages in a non-bullish alignment, trading volume 1.96 times the 20-day average (surging volume), and a 7-day volatility/return rate of +1.1% (slight increase).

AI LEARNING NOTE

Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result

The forecast expected a 4.5% increase, but the actual result was -17.5%, hitting the stop-loss level and failing. Although the revenue guidance, high trading volume, and RSI oversold signal were correct positive catalysts and technical rationales, a stop-loss occurred as the price declined further near the support level. The resistance target was not achieved, and the fact that the stop-loss level actually functioned was different from the prediction.

What to Watch in the Next Analysis

In the next trade, verify that the price remains above the support level prior to purchase, and set a tighter stop-loss. In addition, rather than entering solely on a volume surge and an RSI oversold signal, utilize additional technical indicators to confirm a trend reversal. While positive news remains an important variable, greater emphasis should be placed on price action and risk management.

05
V13 VERIFICATION

Chart Verification

V13 Worker auto-verified
Initial ChartAt Analysis · 2026-11-03
$227.75
Verification ChartVerification · 2026-11-03 12:06:07
-17.5%
Investment Reference NoticeThis report is a record of past AI analysis being verified — it does not solicit buying or selling any specific stock. All investment decisions and responsibility rest with the user.