Microsoft outlines Q1 revenue of $89.85B-$90.95B while forecasting ~45% Azure growth
The strong performance outlook for Microsoft and the growth related to AI are key factors. The Q1 revenue guidance is projected to be between $89.85 billion and $90.95 billion, with Azure's growth rate expected to reach approximately 45%.
We noted the confirmation of a strong growth outlook for Azure ahead of the earnings announcement. The stock has been consolidating with a volatility of -0.1% over the past 7 days, and we believe it is in a range where buying interest may arise near the support level of 380.
If the resistance level of 400 is breached and the profit target of $405.0 is reached, I will sell. If the support level of 380 is broken and the stop-loss price of $375.0 is reached, I will sell.
The RSI(14) is at 56.4, indicating that it is neither in the overbought nor oversold range, and the moving averages are in a non-aligned state. The trading volume is at 0.98 times the 20-day average, which is considered a moderate level.
In a past similar case, on 2026-07-31 at 03:27:52, MSFT recorded a return of 15.5%.
It was a great success, with the actual return (15.5%) significantly exceeding the predicted return (1.8%). Technically, I assessed that the reversal signal was weak, but I underestimated the strong momentum following the earnings announcement and the surge through the resistance level of 400.
We will more actively reflect the volatility around the earnings announcement. Even if technical indicators are weak, we will include the possibility of breakout trades in our scenarios if supported by strong fundamentals (such as Azure growth rate).