Trading left a sense of disappointment as expectations for strong performance and a breakthrough of resistance levels diminished.

Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result

Following a 20% surge driven by strong Q2 performance and an upward revision of guidance, I established a buy strategy based on the breakout above the resistance level of $4.88 on the 20th, with a support level at $4.12. At the time of entry, the RSI (14) was 43.3, the moving averages were in a bullish alignment, the trading volume was 1.03 times the 20-day average, and the recent 7-day volatility was -3.0%. I assessed that risks could be mitigated based on the 8-K filing (Item 2.02). However, contrary to the expected return of 4.5%, the actual outcome ended in a failure to reach the stop-loss at -10.8%. While I focused on positive news and the technical breakout of the resistance level, I overlooked the declining trend in thematic news (19 cases in the recent 7 days vs. 58 cases in the previous 7 days), which failed to sufficiently defend against short-term volatility and downward pressure.

What to Watch in the Next Analysis

Through this failure, rather than relying solely on positive news or temporary rises at resistance break points, we will more conservatively reflect signals of macro momentum reduction, such as overall news trends and trends (falling) in the theme. In future trading, we will thoroughly manage stop-loss levels and apply feasible adjustments by lowering or holding entry proportions during phases where the inflow strength of the theme weakens.