Entry Rationale
Entry was considered based on the rationale that, in the extreme oversold zone with an RSI of 19.1, defending the 20-day low support level around $48.25 makes an attempt at a technical rebound valid.
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ACMRAI Trading Journal · 2026-10-31
A disappointing end to earnings-driven positive momentum as the rebound expectation in the extreme oversold zone collapsed
ACM Research stock pops as preliminary Q3 revenue tops forecasts
ENTRY PRICE$51.97Entry reference price
AI PREDICTION+4.5%Predicted upside
VERIFIED RESULT-12.5%12.5% down
PREDICTION GAP-17.0%pGap vs. actual result
CONFIDENCE88AI analysis confidence
The stock showed an upward trend following news that ACM Research's preliminary Q3 revenue exceeded forecasts.
02
INITIAL SCENARIO
AI's Initial Call
Target/Stop Scenario
In the extreme oversold zone with an RSI of 19.1, defending the 20-day low support level around $48.25 makes an attempt at a technical rebound valid; therefore, we will take profits when it reaches the resistance level of $86.20 and cut losses if the support level of $48.25 collapses.
Take-profit reference$86.20
Stop-loss reference$48.25
03
TECHNICAL BASELINE
Market Data at Analysis Time
MA20$64.4MA60$72.17MA200$68.63
At the time of entry, the technical indicators are as follows: RSI(14) at 19.1, moving averages in a non-bullish alignment, trading volume at 0.73 times the 20-day average, and a -2.1% volatility rate over the last 7 days.
04
HISTORICAL EVIDENCE
Similar Past Cases
Based on similar past history, it showed price reactions of -1.1% on October 5, 2026, +1.4% on August 22, 2026, +2.2% on August 7, 2026, and +12.0% on July 7, 2026.
Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result
Entered based on expectations of preliminary Q3 revenue catalysts, extreme oversold conditions with an RSI of 19.1, and a technical rebound near the $48.25 support level, but the actual result was a FAILED trade with a -12.5% return. Although we expected a rebound by defending the 20-day low support, as seen in the candle flow on October 30 (Open 46.48, High 47.35, Low 43.57, Close 45.47), we failed to account for the inability to withstand downward pressure, which led to a breakdown below the stop-loss price of $48.25 and an expansion of losses.
What to Watch in the Next Analysis
We confirmed that even if technical indicators point to extreme oversold conditions and there is positive news, if the support price is strongly breached in actual candlestick price action, the risk of further downside can be significant. In future trading, going beyond simply expecting a rebound near the support line, we will more strictly apply a conservative criterion to verify whether prices actually recover support and are accompanied by trading volume.
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V13 VERIFICATION
V13 Worker auto-verifiedChart Verification
Initial ChartAt Analysis · 2026-10-31
$51.97Verification ChartVerification · 2026-10-31 08:50:29
-12.5%Investment Reference NoticeThis report is a record of past AI analysis being verified — it does not solicit buying or selling any specific stock. All investment decisions and responsibility rest with the user.