An Unexpected Sharp Rise Driven by Confidence in Upward Guidance

Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result

A target return of 3.5% was set, aiming for a rebound between the support level based on the lowest price on the 20th ($1109.15) and the resistance level ($1241.89). However, the actual result recorded a return of 14.8%, resulting in an OVERHIT designation. The strong catalysts of a surge in sales for Zepbound and Mounjaro, along with an upward revision of the 2026 guidance, were accurately captured, as was the rebound pressure accompanied by a trading volume reaching 1.71 times in an oversold zone (RSI 42.1). While the direction was correct, it was confirmed that the strength of the upward momentum and the speed of the market's reaction were conservatively estimated, leading to an inability to fully capture the much larger increase than anticipated.

What to Watch in the Next Analysis

Through this transaction, we confirmed the possibility of an overshooting beyond the expected target price during an oversold rebound phase accompanied by strong earnings guidance upgrades and increased trading volume. In the future, when similar positive news and indicator conditions overlap, we will flexibly adjust our response criteria to maximize profits, without being tied solely to conservative profit-taking targets.