A Rally Soaring with Positive News as It Scoffs at Overbought Warnings

Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result

At the time of the forecast, I approached the situation conservatively, considering the overbought condition with an RSI of 80.0 and the recent breakout above the 20-day high of $30.33, leaving open the possibility of a short-term correction followed by a reattempt. I set a profit-taking target at $30.33 and maintained a cautious stance; however, the actual outcome far exceeded that level, resulting in an explosive return of 35.8%, which was classified as OVERHIT. There is a lingering regret that I did not fully capture the strong trend continuation, as the positive outlook and influx of trading volume (1.15 times the 20-day average) did not merely signal overheating.

What to Watch in the Next Analysis

Even if the RSI has entered the overbought zone, when accompanied by strong fundamental improvement news such as upward guidance from the company, it is necessary to trust the momentum of the trend rather than a mechanical conservative response. In future similar breakout phases, I will maintain the support and resistance levels while reflecting a slightly more flexible upward adjustment of the target price based on trading volume and the impact of positive news in the next trading strategy.