The weight of record weakness that absorbed the positive news of new car launches, and poor delivery volumes.

Reviewing Prediction vs. Actual Result

Expecting product expansion momentum from the launch of the new i9 model, we entered targeting a 2.1% profit, but the actual result recorded a failure (FAILED) with a -11.2% loss. At the time of entry, the RSI(14) was 41.1 and trading volume was 1.38 times the 20-day average. Since the number of news articles on the consumer_cyclical theme was also in a rising trend, a rebound could have been expected. However, the actual downward pressure reflected in the previously announced 6.3% decrease in September deliveries (-6.3% Y/Y, 31,817 units) and the news of the lowest price since the beginning of the year recorded just before entry was insufficient to completely offset.

What to Watch in the Next Analysis

We confirmed that a one-off positive factor, such as an individual company's new product launch, is unlikely to overcome strong downward momentum, such as the macro-level decline in delivery volume or the breaking of new 52-week lows. In future trading, we will not only look at the direction of news catalysts, but also more closely cross-check negative signals—such as previous earnings (e.g., delivery volumes) and whether recent stock lows are being breached—to take a more conservative approach to entry timing.