[ABT]

In early July, ABT tested support around $94 and showed a gradual trend, but the decline to $91.46 on the 13th and $88.33 on the 14th was quite painful. When it broke through the key resistance level and even dropped below $90, thoughts of "should I cut my losses?" dominated my mind. However, I held on, believing in the strong fundamental news of an upward guidance revision. On the 15th, I confirmed that the downward trend had stopped as it closed at $89.27, and I decided to enter. Just before the entry point on the 16th at 10:05 PM, the stock price had already started at $95.29 and soared to $101.87, showing explosive energy. Overcoming fear and experiencing a surge of over 10% made me realize the destructive power of news-based trading once again. ### [Section 2: The Moment of Results and Honest Reflection] When I saw the final return of 10.7%, I was honestly taken aback. The target of 3.2% reflected a conservative expectation based on the upward guidance, so this level of surge was unexpected. It would be arrogant to say, "I knew this would happen," as the drop on the 14th was too deep, and I feel fortunate that I didn't hit the sell button out of fear. The market's reaction completely overwhelmed my predictions. The explosive trading volume on the 16th showed that the market overreacted (OVERHIT) to the news of the "guidance hike," which exceeded simple expectations. As a result, I acknowledge that the forecast of 3.2% was far too narrow a measure to capture the market's enthusiasm. ### [Section 3: Outlook and Lessons] This trade exactly matches the return of 10.7% recorded in a past similar success case on '2026-07-16 22:05:30'. At that time, news such as "Abbott rises as guidance hike tops expectations" and "Earnings Snapshot: Abbott Laboratories tops Q2 estimates, lifts FY26 adjusted EPS outlook range above consensus" combined to create strong momentum. If a similar guidance hike event occurs in the future, I need to keep open the possibility of an "OVERHIT," where market sentiment can become extremely skewed, rather than simply modeling past averages. Trusting the fundamentals all the way through the fear period was the right choice, but if I had adopted a more aggressive partial selling strategy during the upward phase, I could have maximized my profits. **Today's lesson: When the market's confidence reacts to news, I need the flexibility to temporarily forget my target return.**

The strong performance of ABT in the second quarter and the upward revision of the FY26 EPS forecast are seen as powerful momentum to restore market confidence. Starting at $94.51 on July 8, the stock price sluggishly fell to $91.46 on the 13th and $88.33 on the 14th. Particularly, when it broke below $90, a sense of fear seemed to overwhelm the market as the psychological support level collapsed. As it attempted to rebound from a low of $89.27 on the 15th, I was anxious about timing my entry, as the stock failed to recover the selling pressure in the low $90s. Ultimately, on the night of the 16th, seeing the stock open at $95.29 with a gap up following the earnings announcement, I decided to enter, confident in the strong buying pressure that had overcome the downward pressure of the previous eight trading days. It was the moment when the anxious waiting period was resolved amidst volatility, closing at $98.83 after hitting $101.87. **[Section 2: The Moment of Results and Honest Reflection]** The final return was 10.7%. Facing an 'OVERHIT' judgment that exceeded the forecast of 3.2% by more than three times, the thrill overshadowed any sense of bewilderment. To be honest, this surge was entirely beyond my predicted range. I had only calculated conservative expectations based on the strong performance and upward guidance, not anticipating the explosive buying pressure that would drive the price to $101.87 during the day on the 16th. My target, which I thought was sufficient, was far too modest in the face of the immense energy the market was generating. I acknowledge that I underestimated the destructive power of performance momentum, which not only confirmed the numbers but also flipped the sentiment of investors suffering in a down market in an instant. **[Section 3: Outlook and Lessons]** This trade made me reconsider how to read the 'speed of market reaction' in news-based breakout trading. Looking at past cases like MBOT (2026-07-07, 86.1%), BVS (2026-07-06, 74.9%), and OFIX (2026-07-06, 58.5%), the stock prices following news with strong momentum often exceed predicted ranges and form trends. Taking these cases as lessons, I am now convinced that in the future, when earnings announcements are accompanied by upward guidance, I should adopt a more aggressive approach to timing re-entry after breaking technical support levels. I will remain vigilant about the bias that kept my predictions at such a low level, not simply satisfied with the profits gained. **Today's lesson: The market's conviction is always hotter than my predictions; acknowledging my mistakes can lead to even greater profits.**

On July 8, ABT started at $94.51 and experienced a significant decline, dropping to $91.46 on the 13th and $88.33 on the 14th. On the 15th, it rebounded slightly to $89.27, attempting to find a technical bounce, but the psychological pressure remained substantial amid the downward trend. Nevertheless, I believed in the intrinsic value of the company and the explosive potential of the news, deciding to enter the market again at 10:05 PM on the 16th, a moment when it was once again attracting market attention. Initially, I wondered if I would have to endure losses as the stock seemed to be stuck at the lower end of the selling range, but the strong bullish candle on the 16th changed that. It opened at $95.29 and surged to $101.87 during the day, showcasing explosive energy. Reflecting on similar success stories like MBOT and BVS, I tried to maintain my conviction amid the volatility, and this effort began to be rewarded with a closing price of $98.83. ### Section 2: The Moment of Results and Honest Reflection The result was an 'OVERHIT'. I entered expecting a 2.8% return, but the actual return was a staggering 10.7%, which honestly felt close to bewilderment. On the 16th, the stock price started at $95.29 and raced up to $101.87 without hesitation. To confess frankly, the declines on the 13th and 14th were so pronounced that the surge on the 16th was completely unexpected and felt like an 'overshooting'. I simply entered believing in the impact of the news, not anticipating that it would break through the resistance levels on the chart so easily. It is true that I did not see this coming. The scale of the profit exceeding my expectations was not due to the precision of my analysis, but rather because the market's reaction to the news completely overwhelmed my calculations. ### Section 3: Outlook and Lessons The movement of ABT aligns with the cases of 'MBOT', which recorded a return of 86.1% on 2026-07-07 at 13:38:16, 'BVS', which had a return of 74.9% on 2026-07-06 at 15:11:39, and 'OFIX', which recorded a return of 58.5% on 2026-07-06 at 15:05:41. When the market shows signs of overheating in response to news from a specific sector, I am reminded that 'market sentiment' is more important than technical indicators. In the future, when encountering such patterns, it seems necessary to adopt a more flexible approach, observing the flow more patiently at points of trend reversal accompanied by trading volume, rather than getting caught up in predicted returns and prematurely reducing positions. However, I must also remember to guard against mistaking luck-based profits for skill. **Today's lesson: Predictions are my responsibility, but the magnitude of profits is determined by the market. Do not fear overshooting; humbly observe the end of the trend.**