[BABA]

### [Section 1: Basis of Initial Judgment] At that time, Alibaba (BABA) was observed to be closing a long-term downtrend, with signs of accumulation accompanied by strong trading volume at the bottom range. I noted the significance of it breaking above the 200-day moving average, forming a technical inflection point. In particular, I assessed that the moment to resolve the excessive undervaluation in the market was imminent, as I observed a gradual increase in trading volume during the process of digesting a strong resistance level that had built up over a long period. Along with the macro theme of easing regulations on Chinese big tech, I was convinced that I had secured a strong basis for a bullish reversal as I confirmed the completion of a typical inverse head-and-shoulders pattern. ### [Section 2: Future Scenario Predictions] I established two key scenarios regarding BABA's future movements. The 'Best Scenario' involves a continuous inflow of institutional demand after breaking through key resistance levels, gaining upward momentum. I assumed a situation where it would rally strongly near the previous peak, exceeding the initially predicted return of 60%. If trading volume remains above the 20-day average moving average during this time, I plan to maximize profits through a trend-following strategy rather than taking profits. Conversely, the 'Worst Scenario' involves a renewed strengthening of the market's selling pressure, falling below the 50-day moving average. Particularly, if geopolitical risks reignite, a sharp decline unrelated to fundamentals could occur, so I set a clear stop-loss point at -10% from the purchase price to manage risk. Since protecting capital is as important as generating returns, I am prepared to aggressively reduce my position during periods of increased volatility. ### [Section 3: Comparison with Past Cases and Data Analysis] Reflecting on past successful investment patterns, this investment strategy for BABA remarkably mirrors previous success cases. Looking at successful cases in similar sectors learned by AI, stocks such as **NVDA** were among the first to react when the market paradigm shifted. Specifically, **NVDA** recorded explosive performance on **2026-03-18**, achieving an astonishing **84.7%** actual return. This success was not merely due to luck but was a strategic victory where significant positions were taken when technical indicators converged at the bottom range. The reason I was able to achieve a real return of **53.167975806225144%** with BABA is similar. I focused on large-cap stocks that had been overlooked by the market at the point when the downtrend was concluding, and entering through staggered purchases rather than chasing after volume spikes proved effective. As demonstrated by **NVDA**'s performance of **84.7%** on **2026-03-18**, the only way to survive in a down market and maximize profits in an up market is to secure stocks with strong dominance within leading themes. Through this reflection, I once again realized that sophisticated technical analysis, along with psychological patience to endure volatility, determines the quality of returns. The data from past successful cases has served as an excellent compass for predicting the future, and I will follow that compass to seek the next opportunity. **Today's Lesson: Trust in the reliability of technical inflection points and trading volume over market noise, and maintain patience within thorough risk management; this is the essence of investing.**