[HMY]

Positive news: Harmony Gold is projected to achieve higher annual results as rising metal prices drive revenue. In the short‑term overbought condition with an RSI of 82.0 and a breakout above the 20‑day resistance, we will take profit if the stock price reaches 22.06, and we will cut loss if the support level breaks down amid increased volatility around 15.22. We considered entry while keeping in mind the possibility of increased volatility after a short-term overbought condition and a break of the resistance level. Since the price has upwardly broken the 20‑day resistance at $22.06, we should approach with caution regarding the potential for a pullback down to the support level around $15.22. RSI(14) is 82.0, indicating a short‑term overbought condition; the moving averages are not aligned, trading volume is 1.30 times the 20‑day average, and the price change over the past 7 days is +12.9%. Despite expectations of a breakout driven by improving earnings outlook on rising metal prices, a +12.9% seven‑day change, and trading volume 1.30 times the 20‑day average, the stock actually posted a –12.7% loss, resulting in a FAILED rating. Although we warned of an extreme short‑term overbought condition (RSI 82.0) and heightened volatility after the 20‑day resistance level ($22.06) was breached, the focus on overheated short‑term momentum left the downside risk near the support level ($15.22) inadequately defended, which led to the failure. Through this trade, I learned that I should refrain from excessive chase buying in overbought zones with RSI above 80, and apply a more conservative stop‑loss criterion when volatility expands alongside a declining trend in theme news (falling). From the next trade onward, I will make it a principle to use staggered buying or pace control when technical overheating indicators are present.