OVERHIT
2026-08-20 11:42:06
Predicted 5.0% → Actual 10.9%
Driven by demand in the defense industry, Leidos (LDOS) saw its revenue and net income exceed expectations, resulting in a sharp rise in its stock price.
In conclusion, since the stock price has surpassed the resistance level, I will set a target price of $119.47 for taking profits, and if it falls below $103.9, I will respond with a stop-loss for risk management.
In conclusion, the current stock price has surpassed the previous resistance level of $119.47, indicating a breakout. Based on this breakout trend and the positive news, entry could be considered.
The technical indicators at the entry point show that the RSI (14) is 69.1, the moving averages are in a non-aligned state, the trading volume is 1.34 times the 20-day average, and the recent 7-day volatility is recorded at +7.6%.
To conclude, the actual result recorded an overhit of 10.9%, surpassing the forecasted return of 5.0%, marking a successful trade. The judgment was effective based on the fact that the stock price broke above the previous resistance level of $119.47 amid positive factors such as earnings surprises and increased defense demand. However, despite the RSI being at 69.1, nearing the overbought zone, and the moving averages being misaligned, the strong momentum, characterized by a 7-day change of +7.6% and a trading volume 1.34 times the 20-day average, led to a much larger increase than expected.
In conclusion, even though the technical indicators are somewhat overheated, when strong earnings news coincides with an influx of trading volume immediately after breaking through resistance levels, I will reflect a strategy of keeping the expected target price slightly more flexible in the next trade.
OVERHIT
2026-08-06 16:36:26
Predicted 1.5% → Actual 13.6%
Leidos beat expectations with Non-GAAP EPS of $3.26, exceeding estimates by $0.35, and revenue of $4.6B, exceeding estimates by $160M.
The upward trend driven by strong earnings is expected to continue; I will take profits if the resistance level of $119.18 is reached, and set a stop-loss if the trend breaks by falling below the support level of $103.90.
A buy entry was considered, driven by strong earnings results and positive news regarding robust demand in the defense industry. The current price of $118.72 is positioned just below the 20-day resistance level of $119.18, making it a critical point to monitor whether the stock undergoes a period of consolidation above the support level of $103.90.
At the entry point, technical indicators showed an RSI(14) of 65.7, a misaligned moving average, and trading volume at 1.34 times the 20‑day average.
Although a conservative profit‑taking target was set based on the positive earnings news and the position just before the 20‑day resistance level at $119.18, the actual market showed strong buying pressure far exceeding that level, recording a high return of 13.6%. It is regrettable that, despite an inflow of trading volume 1.34 times the 20‑day average, the strong breakout through the resistance was not fully anticipated, leaving the position stuck in a short‑term range.
In a phase where a strong earnings surprise coincides with concentrated defense industry demand, we will reflect in our next trade a strategy of flexibly adjusting the target price while keeping open the possibility of a strong breakout accompanied by increased volume, not merely simple consolidation or absorption of selling pressure near the resistance level.