FAILED
2026-10-07 02:51:38
Predicted 8.5% → Actual -12.1%
The stock surged due to the strong positive catalyst of the Phase 3 clinical trial data release for its vaccine candidate.
Based on the current price of $75.90, the stock is showing signs of short-term overheating. Therefore, if it successfully establishes a base without pulling back to the support level around $55.08, I will consider taking profit with the resistance level of $61.78 as the target. However, if the support level at $55.08 breaks, I will respond by cutting losses.
Since the current price has strongly broken above the previous resistance level of $61.78 to the upside, a cautious entry should be considered while confirming whether it successfully establishes a support level following a short-term overheating phase.
RSI (14) is at 39.3, nearing the oversold zone; moving averages are in a bullish alignment (jeongbae-yeol); volume is 1.70 times the 20-day average; and the 7-day volatility rate stands at -0.0%.
Despite the strong positive catalyst of Phase 3 clinical trial data announcement for the vaccine candidate, which led to a breakthrough of the $61.78 resistance level, the actual result—contrary to the prediction of confirming a support base after short-term overheating—ended in failure with a -12.1% return, falling below the $55.08 stop-loss price. It is unfortunate that, despite technical indicators such as an RSI (14) of 39.3 and increased trading volume being captured, the selling pressure during the sharp volatility was not fully defended.
Through this trade, we learned that even with strong positive catalysts and a sharp surge in trading volume, the risk of support line breakdowns during short-term overheating must be managed with greater rigor. Moving forward, in periods of heightened volatility following a resistance breakout, we will apply stop-loss management and position sizing guidelines more conservatively.
While there is no basis for direct similarity, reference cases for global top performers include VEEE (2026-07-16, return of 451.7%), LRCX (2026-07-06, return of 346.8%), and AEMD (2026-09-18, return of 336.4%).