FAILED
2026-08-20 15:00:41
Predicted 0.5% → Actual -10.1%
Snap is expanding its audience and increasing advertising revenue, but analysts are questioning whether that is sufficient.
The current stock price is above the resistance level of $5.08, indicating a strong upward momentum with the potential for further gains. Based on the condition that this strong upward trend is maintained, I will take profits at $5.08. Conversely, if the stock price falls below the support level of $4.28, I will respond with a stop-loss.
We considered entering based on the fact that the current stock price is above the resistance level of 5.08, indicating a strong upward momentum with potential for further gains.
The technical indicators at the entry point show that the RSI (14) is 62.9, the moving averages are not aligned, the trading volume is 2.85 times the 20-day average, and the recent 7-day volatility is recorded at +14.3%.
At the time of entry, the stock price was evaluated as being in a strong upward momentum phase, exceeding the resistance level of 5.08, with the upper range open. Based on an RSI(14) of 62.9, a trading volume 2.85 times the 20-day average, and a +14.3% volatility over the past 7 days, there were expectations for an increase. However, the actual result was a -10.1% return, resulting in a FAILED judgment as it reached the stop-loss level of 4.28. The trend of news count within the theme was falling (291 cases vs 399 cases), and inherent risk factors such as the misaligned moving averages were not adequately reflected, leading to a failure to thoroughly defend against downside risks, as the focus was solely on short-term trading volume increases and momentum indicators.
Based on the experience of entering the market relying solely on short-term momentum with volume and the phase of surpassing resistance levels, only to be pushed down to the stop-loss level, I will strengthen the entry criteria much more conservatively in the future when macro and structural warning signals, such as the overall news trend of the theme (whether it is falling) and the misalignment of moving averages, appear simultaneously.
OVERHIT
2026-08-04 14:44:41
Predicted 8.5% → Actual 14.4%
This is a performance surprise driven by the advertising impact of the World Cup. The news that Snap exceeded revenue expectations due to growth in its advertising segment is driving the stock price increase.
The current stock price is attempting to break above the previous resistance level of 4.89. Therefore, I will take profits if it reaches 4.89, and I will cut losses if the support level of 4.28 is breached.
A strong upward momentum has been confirmed following the earnings announcement. The current stock price is attempting to break above the previous resistance level of 4.89, and we are considering an entry into the position.
The RSI(14) is at a neutral level of 51.4, and the moving averages are in a non-aligned state. The trading volume is 1.06 times the 20-day average, and the recent 7-day volatility is +4.9%.
It recorded an OVERHIT with a return of 14.4%, significantly exceeding the forecasted return of 8.5%. The strategy based on the breakthrough of the resistance level proved successful, and we did not miss the stronger-than-expected upward momentum.
We have once again confirmed the strong momentum that occurs when a revenue beat coincides with a breakout above resistance levels. We will maintain our strategy of entering after confirming a breakout in the event of a similar pattern in the future.
Past similar success cases that overlap with the keyword 'revenue beat' include AMRC (2026-08-04), IDCC (2026-07-31), and the current SNAP case.