[UMC]

United Microelectronics reported 30.7% year-over-year revenue surge in August 2026, reaching NT$25.04B in monthly sales, serving as the primary catalyst for the trade. If price reaches the $20.84 resistance level, take profit is triggered; if price falls below the $17.88 support level, stop-loss executes. Entry was initiated upon the August 2026 revenue surge news, with price trading around $21.58 (entry time), above the resistance level, and thin volume (0.55x 20-day average) prompting cautious monitoring. Upon the 30.7% Y/Y revenue surge news for August 2026, entered UMC at approximately $21.58 (entry time 13:50:58 on 2026-09-08). Price was above the $20.84 resistance level, with 20-day average volume at 0.55x, indicating thin participation. Rationale was news-driven momentum with awareness of potential pullback to $17.88 support or further upside confirmation. RSI(14): 55.8; Moving average alignment: non-aligned; 20-day average volume ratio: 0.55x; Recent 7-day price change: +1.3% Comparing the predicted (1.5%) and actual results (10.1%), the 30.7% Y/Y sales increase news acted as a strong positive factor; however, the entry price ($21.58) was formed above the resistance line ($20.84), making immediate profit-taking difficult. Despite thin trading volume (0.55x 20-day average), buying pressure continued, resulting in a 10.1% profit exceeding the target. The OVERHIT assessment indicates a result that significantly exceeded the prediction, suggesting that the market reaction to the news catalyst persisted longer than expected. The key lesson was insufficient volume check before entry, and going forward, I will consider resistance proximity and volume confirmation simultaneously. The following points are to be reflected in the next trade: 1) Check trading volume and price positions around news announcements more thoroughly in advance. 2) When approaching the resistance line ($20.84), refrain from entering or use limit orders to adjust the entry price. 3) Limit risk in advance by adhering to the stop-loss line ($17.88). 4) In the decreasing trend of theme news count (320→168), prioritize entries based on concrete performance and trading volume indicators rather than excessive expectations. Case 1 (UMC 2026-09-08 13:50:58): Shares the keyword UMC with this trade, matching the selection ground for direct keyword overlap. Case 2 (VEEE 2026-07-16 12:01:25): Selection ground notes no direct similarity; included as top-performing reference case (451.7% gain) for momentum benchmark. Case 3 (LRCX 2026-07-06 13:41:02): Selection ground notes no direct similarity; included as top-performing reference case (346.8% gain) for momentum benchmark. Direct comparison is difficult for Cases 2 and 3 given their selection grounds, but they serve as upper-bound performance examples in the tech sector.

### [Section 1: Entry Judgment Basis] **Key Judgment: The combination of the supply chain benefit from the commencement of silicon photonics mass production at the Singapore facility and the improved outlook from Citigroup aims to capture profit opportunities at the rebound point after the stock price decline.** * **News Basis and Expectations:** Attention was drawn to the news regarding the mass production of silicon photonics wafers at UMC's Singapore production facility. This was deemed a direct expansion of the company's production capacity and a potential significant increase in revenue. Coupled with Citigroup's positive outlook, it was anticipated that the material value on the day of the news would lead to an improvement in corporate value. * **Judgment Based on Candle Flow:** After forming a peak at 24.92 on July 15, a decline was observed to 22.29 on July 16 and 21.25 on July 17. It was considered that the decline had slowed down by closing at 20.3 on July 20. The entry point on July 21 was determined under the hypothesis that short-term material reflection would begin at the previous day's closing price of 20.3. * **Related News and Impact on Results:** The news reported at 20:12:30 on July 16, stating "10% decline after two days of increase," indicated that there was already significant volatility in the market. Despite the positive news of the commencement of mass production strengthening the company's fundamentals, the actual market reaction could not completely rule out the possibility of exposure to sharp volatility, as evidenced by the previously reported 10% decline. ### [Section 2: Result Comparison] **Key Judgment: Although a short-term rebound was predicted based on positive news, the increased volatility before and after the entry point overwhelmed expectations for performance improvement, leading to a failure to reach the target and hitting the stop-loss level.** * **Difference Between Prediction and Reality:** Entering with an expected return of 4.2%, the actual result was a loss of -13.5%, resulting in a FAILED judgment. This outcome suggests that the positive momentum following the news announcement was already priced into the market, or that the selling pressure indicated by the 10% decline on July 16 was not adequately considered. * **Verification of Judgment Basis:** The mass production at the Singapore facility and Citigroup's positive outlook were valid information; however, the candle flow from July 15 to July 20 indicated that buying pressure had not fully recovered. Particularly, after the 10% drop on July 16, the price fell to 20.3 without signs of recovery, overlooking the lack of additional buying inflow. ### [Section 3: Adjustments for Future Trading] **Key Judgment: When entering based on news, strengthen the criteria to confirm whether the stock has completely halted its recent volatility and decline.** * **Execution Task:** In future trades, adjustments will be made to enter only after confirming that the candle flow over the five days prior to entry has recovered at least 50% of the previous decline or shows clear signs of a reversal after the decline. * **Volatility Response:** For stocks that experience a 10% fluctuation within a short period, such as on July 16, even with positive news, a judgment on entry will be made only after observing for more than a day whether the rebound from the news can maintain continuity. * **Comparison with Past Cases:** Analyzing past successful cases such as VEEE (2026-07-16 12:01:25, 451.7%), LRCX (2026-07-06 13:41:02, 346.8%), and AMD (2026-07-06 14:01:01, 333.8%), it was confirmed that the strong upward momentum commonly observed was absent in this UMC case. In the future, if the market reaction on the day of the news is not overwhelmingly positive, a conservative approach will be taken.