OVERHIT
2026-03-20 08:49:44
Predicted 60.0% → Actual 233.0%
At this point, no news or positive developments have been confirmed.
If the upward trend continues, a profit-taking consideration would have been around 27.7 to 27.8, and if the downward trend resumes, a stop-loss consideration would have been around 27.3 to 27.4. The specific prices would have been assessed based on candle patterns and support/resistance levels.
At this point, one would have looked at the candle flow. On March 19, it reached a high of 27.7 and closed at 27.63, while the next day, March 20, opened at 27.59 and rose to a high of 27.68, continuing the upward trend. One would have considered entering to determine whether this upward trend was a temporary rebound or would continue. However, since it could not be confidently asserted that the downward trend had completely reversed, a cautious approach would have been necessary.
The actual result significantly exceeded the predicted return of 60%, reaching 233%. It would have been difficult to anticipate such a rise based solely on candle patterns. However, the strong upward trend from March 19 to 20, along with past similar cases (VEEE, LRCX, AMD) where sharp increases occurred, may have led to an underestimation. On the other hand, it is true that there was a lack of confidence in the complete reversal of the downward trend.
In the next trades, we will consider not only the candle flow but also changes in trading volume and news trends. In particular, for stocks that have shown a rapid increase, we will analyze the likelihood of excessive upward momentum continuing by referencing past cases more closely. Additionally, when setting stop-loss and take-profit levels, we plan to establish a wider range by referring to the return distribution of similar past cases.